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FOREWORD by Arie de Geus
Change the Language - Change the Reality!
INTRODUCTION
Chapter One
UNCERTAINTY AND DECISION-MAKING
- Facing Up to Uncertainty
- Improving Your Decision-Making
- Applying Scenario Thinking
Chapter Two
HOW DECISIONS MISS THE MARK
- The Idea of the First Causal Heuristic
- The Five Common Errors in Decision-Making
- Framing Decisions
Chapter Three
THE FOUNDATIONS OF WORKING WITH SCENARIOS
- How Scenario Thinking Works
- Limits to Conventional Planning
- Decision-Making as Learning
- Constructing Multiple Futures
- Decision Thinking with Scenarios
- Decision Robustness and Resilience
- Environmental Sensitivity
- Structural Principles of Scenarios
- Overview of Scenario Construction
Chapter Four
PRACTICAL APPLICATION
- The Role of Facilitation
- Guidelines for Facilitation
- Basic Assumptions Affecting Facilitation
- The Working Environment
Chapter Five
USING THE SCENARIO MATRIX AS A PERSONAL PLANNING TOOL
(Tutorial)
- Introduction
- A Personal Scenario Thinking Exercise
Chapter Six
CREATING AND WRITING SCENARIOS WITH A GROUP (Process Guide)
- Clarifying Environmental Factors
- Creating Prototype Scenarios
- Generating Multiple Images of the Future
- Verifying Through Environmental Scanning
- Where We Are Now in the Process
Chapter Seven
APPLYING SCENARIOS TO DECISIONS (Process Guide)
- Mapping Decision Issues
- Using the Idon Decision/Scenario Matrix
- Drawing Conclusions From the Scenario Matrix
- Scanning the Present for the Future - Cognitive Priming
Chapter Eight
SETTING UP SCENARIO PROJECTS
- Balancing Depth and Ownership
- Methods for Gaining Depth
- Methods for Gaining Ownership
- Linking Scenario Work to Management Practice
AFTERWORD
Implications For Multi-Track Thinking
Scenarios of the Future - Scenarios of the Past - Scenarios of the Present
- Gambling with Commitment
- Scenarios of the Present, Scenarios of the Past
- Four Ways We Neglect Present Reality
- The Healthy Intellect
- Intuition: Valid Impressions of the Future
- Healthy Faculties of Intuition and Creativity
BIBLIOGRAPHY
GLOSSARY OF TERMS
APPENDIX
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