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 Idon SCENARIO THINKING
INTRODUCTION
How Scenarios Help Decision-Making
Freedom to Choose
As we exercise our freedom of choice consciously or by default, we incur consequences, experienced as pleasing or painful.
Responsibility for our decision-making, manifested through action or inaction, undertaken deliberately or inadvertently, remains ours.
Having to make a choice in the face of uncertainty - particularly when the stakes are high - can bring additional pressures to bear that impact on, and often influence, judgement.
So, in the midst of uncertainty, having full confidence to commit to an action, whether as an individual or as part of an organisation,
may require the satisfaction of many wide-ranging pre-requisites, including accurate contextual information, some form of traditional forecasting and a feeling of having done 'everything possible' to
optimise chances for the desired outcome. The degree to which we attend to these issues is a choice we make.
Limitations of Mindset
Even when motivation to do "everything possible" is high, once we start looking more deeply into it we find there are softer issues to
take into account that are anything but straight-forward. Arie De Geus, former Head of Planning for the Shell Group puts it well:
"Where you sit and what you've thought determines what you see".
How aware are we of our mindset and the forces driving our opinions and decisions? What are we assuming about our situation and are we questioning those assumptions? How far are
we in touch with and deliberately facing the inherent uncertainties that exist? How many possible outcomes do we take into account whilst doing this? What have we not taken into account? Have we
considered unexpected events, what might they be? What does our intuition tell us... and... in the light of all this, are we pursuing the right course?
The Dilemma of the Future
Although it could be seen as attractive at times, if offered the power of clairvoyance or prediction as a real option, we are not so sure
many of us would indeed choose to have it.
We may be vulnerable in front of an unknown future but seeing the future 'out of context', whether we consider we are prepared for it or not, would bring sudden exposure to experiences of unexpected
joys, or, alternatively, unbearable sorrows.
Without preparation - a psychological and emotional understanding of the unfolding of events and time horizons - our feelings of helplessness and disengagement from consequences
would be amplified. Foreknowledge of either positive or negative outcomes would undoubtedly alter the conditions of our current existence, even where we are apparently helpless to effect a change.
Should we say it is fortunate then, that we are spared this type of vision, and consequently a confrontation of the difficult dilemma?
This might be an over-simplification of the issue. Historically, our desire for knowledge, exploration and understanding of our predicament, wanting control over destiny, does not so easily
surrender to complacency.
To what extent are we victims of circumstances, the unexpected, the unknown - and to what extent are we creative participants effecting changes in an unfolding drama? These fundamental
questions lie at the core of Scenario Thinking, constituting both its mystery and its challenge. As we enter into dialogue with this issue
we are widening our perspectives and increasing our options for exercising more deliberate decision-making toward positive changes.
Scenario Thinking as a Mental Skill
The essence of Scenario Thinking (or Scenario Planning) is not about predicting the future and surprisingly enough, not about
choosing the best way forward, though it is indeed a powerful and invaluable tool which helps this. Its primary value lies in the development of new faculties for improved decision-making in
those that practise it regularly; faculties that determine how we are in the face of the unknown.
Developing these faculties enables us to transcend the specific or localised circumstance solution, to go beyond short-term or one-off successes and acquire a consistency and robustness in coherent
long-term decision making. We more rapidly come to know the right questions to ask and where to look for missing pieces to the puzzle; how to spot unique opportunities, choose the best way
forward, respond flexibly and quickly in an emergency and so on...with a confident base on which to build.
Without this essential new capability, we may take up Scenario Planning as a discipline but lack the skill and insight to gain its real value.
Contexting Scenarios
Surprisingly, the first step in Scenario thinking - or Multi-Future thinking as we often refer to it at Idon, is to fix ourselves firmly in the
present. When thinking about the future, we do so within a context; a starting place or how things are now, gives rise to an opening
array of ideas or facts, which in turn are related to some sense of a desired goal or objective.
As we convert this information into well defined 'stories' of possible future situations and what our 'options' for action in them are, we
surface the inherent uncertainties facing us that need to be dealt with or overcome. An obvious fact often forgotten, however, is that these uncertainties have sprung out of our original thinking,
assumptions, omissions and commissions.
The quality and disposition of original input will strongly influence the flow of thought, handling of material and quality of output. In
order to make the best use of scenarios it is important to clarify our intentions and identify the issues or areas to test with the multiple
futures. In this book we demonstrate a way of mapping these issues with hexagons which ensures that the widest range of factors is taken into consideration at the outset.
Finally, we hope this publication will enhance your implementation of Scenario Thinking. In the pages that follow we present material
for thought along the lines we have been discussing, as well as extensive application guidelines and exercises for thinking in multiple futures. For best practice we recommend you use the
material in conjunction with the Idon Scenario Thinking Kits and Idons-For-Thinking[TM] software.
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